2008年一季报显示，今年第一季度上市公司整体业绩增速较去年同期明显放缓，净利润出现下滑的公司所占比例较去年有所上升。在CPI持续高位、货币紧缩、成本上升、出口下降等众多不利因素共存的背景下，企业未来盈利能否保持持续较快的增长就显得尤为重要。2007年和今年第一季度均实现了较高的盈利水平且表现出良好成长性的公司，相对而言，将有望在未来获得持续的增长。
伴随着市场6000点以来大幅下跌和上市公司业绩持续增长，市场估值水平逐渐下降，以5月27日收盘价计算，沪深两市全部A股前推12个月总股本加权滚动市盈率为26.59倍，其中钢铁、航运两个行业市盈率已落在20倍以内；有色、综合、公路、汽车及配件、贸易等行业市盈率也均在20倍附近；之前一直保持较高估值的房地产、保险等行业，目前市盈率也大幅下降至30倍左右（见表1）。由于各行业估值状况不同，对于估值低于行业整体水平的
个股，无疑在估值上可以说是具有优势的。
我们根据天相系统，以"市盈率低于行业整体水平30%以上、2007年每股收益超过0.4元、净利润增速高于40%、2008年第一季度每股收益超过0.1元、净利润增速超过25%"为口径，筛选出了一部分成长性良好、估值水平相对具有优势的个股（见表2）。此外，由于钢铁等少数行业市盈率数值极低，所以行业内个股很少能满足低于行业整体水平30%以上的条件，但是这些个股在估值及成长性方面也同样具备优势。在近期指数持续表现疲弱的市场中，这些成长性及估值水平兼顾的个股不失为较好的防御性品种，而其中短期跌幅巨大的个股，或许也存在着交易性机会。
表1：沪深股市行业板块估值及成长性分析
行业公司家数总股本加权滚动市盈率(倍)（2008.Q1）摊薄每股收益(元)（2008.Q1）净利润增长率(%）（2007年）摊薄每股收益(元)（2007年）净利润增长率(%)总市值(亿元)钢铁4618.280.17015.420.61628.7110,534航运业2619.840.18351.750.59198.157,616有色4420.670.1695.310.6656.559,797综合4821.240.03390.610.163305.851,955公路1721.270.085-7.400.36423.481,835汽车及配件6421.550.11743.980.414140.993,962贸易2222.080.13629.960.623336.041,347石油825.890.145-27.290.726-0.1332,876石化426.450.069-68.370.5996.8511,250总计156026.590.11817.160.41949.86269,428元器件5527.440.04434.170.21510286.551,699民航业1128.070.095557.460.308191.603,705计算机硬件2328.530.041-37.210.3441442.991,031机械11928.670.12731.380.53675.086,648证券828.770.30523.371.849484.935,834日用品1128.780.028-49.640.453123.46303家电4729.330.07192.250.2051332.852,527铁路运输329.690.11417.860.37546.462,429化纤2730.170.015496.730.046192.681,155造纸包装3630.810.0801.600.327114.741,472保险330.850.234-28.071.157120.3514,236纺织服装6630.990.052-20.330.265271.362,302房地产11231.480.07568.510.37898.668,588电力5631.690.019-75.040.35424.507,982交通与仓储1231.870.06814.500.32033.29677银行1435.270.12291.000.29157.8666,101化工10838.310.155178.930.374169.857,044建材6139.100.04989.110.292132.433,099电气设备4539.500.11818.450.52428.133,000建筑业3139.560.04751.700.26891.714,454商业5641.430.12645.810.40274.933,381通信4442.530.0420.170.209352.343,996煤炭2743.910.24550.960.72927.9818,279供水供气1345.620.04719.100.2149.76906酒店旅游2246.680.018-13.060.252135.82664信托及其它447.420.027-8.550.326153325.88317软件及服务3450.140.07751.660.411275.571,491农林牧副渔5051.930.044148.140.194506.202,347食品4852.140.16559.470.42672.186,117传媒1657.090.04628.870.22465.781,285医药11970.770.09241.100.315166.685,185 表2：部分成长性良好、估值水平相对具有优势的个股
股票代码
股票名称收盘价(元)（5.27）滚动市盈率（倍）行业市盈率（倍）高出行业市盈率（%）（2008Q1）基本每股收益(元)（2008Q1）净利润增长率(%)（2007年）基本每股收益(元)（2007年）净利润增长率(%)涨幅(%)（4.22-5.27）行业000001深发展Ａ25.0218.4035.27-47.840.4487.671.2787.686.24银行000028一致药业18.2038.3270.77-45.840.1345.700.4355.7121.74医药000422湖北宜化21.3123.3638.31-39.020.32162.940.7276.1525.42化工600000浦发银行27.2721.0635.27-40.280.65186.551.2663.859.22银行600015华夏银行11.5119.5935.27-44.460.2080.430.5044.21-2.05银行600016民生银行7.1217.4335.27-50.590.13122.480.4868.57-4.43银行600030中信证券32.3215.6928.77-45.450.76101.034.01408.8416.02证券600036招商银行29.4722.6935.27-35.670.43156.661.04124.36-5.27银行600655豫园商城32.4424.5841.43-40.660.2337.881.26224.540.00商业000338潍柴动力61.2612.8821.55-40.251.37180.324.42172.54-4.27汽车及配件002028思源电气26.6822.2839.50-43.600.43319.121.6582.07-1.00电气设备002088鲁阳股份16.7725.8239.10-33.950.1237.140.9963.060.72建材600352浙江龙盛12.1018.0838.31-52.800.16106.290.6582.38-2.58化工600029南方航空10.4516.1228.07-42.590.18523.400.42786.12-0.29民航业000516开元控股12.4021.7841.43-47.420.1530.170.5379.566.07商业600409三友化工19.8224.5138.31-36.030.36251.140.55110.1217.63化工002062宏润建设16.2822.2039.56-43.890.1727.420.7067.6917.29建筑业600332广州药业14.7432.2270.77-54.460.1445.960.4141.1121.62医药600202哈空调19.8017.8039.50-54.950.24182.590.96118.9812.95电气设备000488晨鸣纸业15.3820.7630.81-32.630.28171.950.60171.127.93造纸包装600062双鹤药业29.7729.2170.77-58.720.2579.680.99165.6214.19医药600827友谊股份14.7119.4341.43-53.090.1348.670.71146.616.75商业002146荣盛发展10.1221.0031.48-33.290.271636.980.8064.18-2.50房地产000939凯迪电力13.6615.2339.50-61.450.1125.841.15187.7512.15电气设备600596新安股份62.9924.3438.31-36.481.14312.731.7250.1015.60化工000989九芝堂13.2023.7370.77-66.470.1344.290.52186.8116.30医药600196复星医药14.7124.3470.77-65.610.16157.530.51142.6515.92医药600150中国船舶102.0619.4128.67-32.311.49135.915.53139.5710.81机械600173卧龙地产9.3616.2331.48-48.450.15315.590.4469.7128.22房地产600840新湖创业13.4510.8131.48-65.660.571479.090.7163.1612.08房地产600479千金药业23.4123.8570.77-66.300.1328.501.1591.456.61医药600685广船国际36.0117.0528.67-40.520.5267.721.90251.6013.31机械600102莱钢股份14.9211.4818.28-37.220.3026.931.2448.119.79钢铁000032深桑达Ａ11.4916.4642.53-61.300.31422.130.45108.4822.10通信600862南通科技11.7217.0628.67-40.470.22260.440.53210.8824.68机械000609绵世股份26.9318.2931.48-41.912.29674.920.95315.5232.09房地产002019鑫富药业21.3015.4070.77-78.230.22133.381.262651.3833.13医药600880DR博瑞传15.4537.7857.09-33.820.1870.920.74149.226.39传媒601009南京银行14.3222.5135.27-36.200.22171.510.6252.95-5.29银行601166兴业银行32.9416.0435.27-54.510.62119.251.75126.04-6.30银行601169北京银行15.2921.6735.27-38.550.26189.800.6356.433.45银行601328交通银行8.7817.5935.27-50.140.16100.280.4363.52-9.86银行000933神火股份44.0024.6843.91-43.810.5536.071.64105.3328.67煤炭000952广济药业19.8019.9970.77-71.750.231144.200.781079.7523.13医药
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